ATP tennis predict — Matthew Dellavedova vs Taro Daniel

Challenger Hard Shanghai challenger · 1. round 12:00

Predicted probability

Matthew Dellavedova

Australia

15.51%

Taro Daniel

Japan

84.49%

Average Odds

4.11 / 1.21

Market probability

22.74% / 77.26%

Why This Prediction?

Taro Daniel is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1771 vs 1396), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1687 vs 1344) and more wins on hard courts (121 vs 14).

Player Comparison

1396.5 Elo 1771.2

1344.0 Elo (surface) 1686.7

34 Wins (Challenger) 245

14 Wins (surface) 121

5 Last 15 form 13

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.872 Dominance ratio 0.851

293 Rank 160

26.3 Age 33.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matthew Dellavedova

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-09-01.

Taro Daniel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matthew Dellavedova Taro Daniel

1st Serve In %

74.4%

64.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.3%

62.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.2%

45.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.0%

28.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.6%

48.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.22

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.10

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

74.4%

62.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.8%

63.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.2%

48.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.7%

29.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.0%

45.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matthew Dellavedova Taro Daniel

Break Points Saved %

54.5%

51.6%

Break Points Converted %

61.5%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.8%

59.0%

Break Points Converted %

43.8%

54.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matthew Dellavedova 0 – 0 Taro Daniel

Hard Shanghai challenger · 2026-09-07

1. round

Taro Daniel #160

Matthew Dellavedova #293

6-3 6-1

5 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 1

69 Service Points 48

50 First Serve In 27

23 First Serve Won 24

11 Second Serve Won 10

8 Break Points Saved 2

12 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.1

Matthew Dellavedova vs Taro Daniel — Prediction