ATP tennis predict — Matthew Dellavedova vs Luca Castelnuovo

Challenger Hard Zhangjiagang challenger · 1. round 05:05

Predicted probability

Matthew Dellavedova

Australia

38.06%

Luca Castelnuovo

Switzerland

61.94%

Average Odds

1.46 / 2.58

Market probability

63.86% / 36.14%

Why This Prediction?

Luca Castelnuovo is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (77.6% vs 58.5% of service points won), a stronger return game (44.7% vs 31.0% of return points won) and a higher Elo rating (1401 vs 1382).

Player Comparison

1382.4 Elo 1401.1

1314.6 Elo (surface) 1443.3

33 Wins (Challenger) 31

13 Wins (surface) 23

5 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.806 Dominance ratio 1.311

293 Rank 461

26.3 Age 29.6

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matthew Dellavedova

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-09-01.

Luca Castelnuovo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–8L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matthew Dellavedova Luca Castelnuovo

1st Serve In %

74.4%

65.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.3%

84.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.2%

64.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.0%

30.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.6%

61.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.22

0.67

Double Faults per Service Game

0.10

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

74.4%

68.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.8%

80.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.2%

50.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.7%

33.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.0%

46.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.60

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matthew Dellavedova Luca Castelnuovo

Break Points Saved %

54.5%

92.3%

Break Points Converted %

61.5%

60.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.8%

63.2%

Break Points Converted %

43.8%

47.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matthew Dellavedova 0 – 0 Luca Castelnuovo

Hard Zhangjiagang challenger · 2026-09-01

1. round

Matthew Dellavedova #293

Luca Castelnuovo #461

4-6 6-3 4-1

8 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 1

66 Service Points 67

42 First Serve In 51

29 First Serve Won 42

14 Second Serve Won 7

3 Break Points Saved 1

6 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.6

Matthew Dellavedova vs Luca Castelnuovo — Prediction