ATP tennis predict — Matteo Martineau vs Yanki Erel

Challenger Hard Segovia challenger · QF

Predicted probability

Matteo Martineau

France

56.31%

Yanki Erel

Turkey

43.69%

Average Odds

2.22 / 1.61

Market probability

42.04% / 57.96%

Why This Prediction?

Matteo Martineau is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1627 vs 1587), a stronger serve (65.2% vs 64.0% of service points won) and more wins on hard courts (81 vs 30).

Player Comparison

1525.8 Elo 1544.2

1626.6 Elo (surface) 1586.9

147 Wins (Challenger) 38

81 Wins (surface) 30

7 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.268 Dominance ratio 1.120

335 Rank 299

27.5 Age 25.8

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matteo Martineau

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–5L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Yanki Erel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matteo Martineau Yanki Erel

1st Serve In %

66.8%

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.7%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.6%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.4%

22.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.7%

53.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.67

0.26

Double Faults per Service Game

0.43

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.4%

63.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.4%

66.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

41.8%

51.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

22.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.3%

48.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matteo Martineau Yanki Erel

Break Points Saved %

60.3%

61.3%

Break Points Converted %

27.7%

52.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.5%

64.2%

Break Points Converted %

39.7%

29.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matteo Martineau 0 – 0 Yanki Erel

Hard Segovia challenger · 2026-07-24

QF

Matteo Martineau #335

Yanki Erel #299

6-4 6-4

1 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 1

58 Service Points 55

43 First Serve In 39

34 First Serve Won 26

7 Second Serve Won 9

3 Break Points Saved 1

4 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.2 Average Odds 1.6

Matteo Martineau vs Yanki Erel — Prediction