ATP tennis predict — Matteo Martineau vs Tristan Schoolkate

Challenger Hard St. Tropez challenger · 1. round 14:30

Predicted probability

Matteo Martineau

France

27.74%

Tristan Schoolkate

Australia

72.26%

Average Odds

2.79 / 1.40

Market probability

33.41% / 66.59%

Why This Prediction?

Tristan Schoolkate is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1772 vs 1586), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1735 vs 1617) and fewer double faults per game (0.17 vs 0.22).

Player Comparison

1586.5 Elo 1772.2

1617.0 Elo (surface) 1734.9

153 Wins (Challenger) 121

87 Wins (surface) 102

8 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.047 Dominance ratio 1.009

276 Rank 152

27.7 Age 25.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matteo Martineau

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–5L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Tristan Schoolkate

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matteo Martineau Tristan Schoolkate

1st Serve In %

66.8%

60.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.6%

54.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.4%

23.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.7%

48.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.67

0.60

Double Faults per Service Game

0.43

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.4%

59.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.4%

70.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

41.8%

50.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

27.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.3%

43.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matteo Martineau Tristan Schoolkate

Break Points Saved %

60.3%

54.9%

Break Points Converted %

27.7%

31.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.5%

64.6%

Break Points Converted %

39.7%

31.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matteo Martineau 0 – 0 Tristan Schoolkate

Hard St. Tropez challenger · 2026-09-22

1. round

Matteo Martineau #276

Tristan Schoolkate #152

7-6 6-7 7-6

16 Aces 10

9 Double Faults 3

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

64 First Serve Won 54

25 Second Serve Won 29

5 Break Points Saved 4

6 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.8 Average Odds 1.4

Matteo Martineau vs Tristan Schoolkate — Prediction