ATP tennis predict — Matteo Martineau vs Oliver Crawford

Challenger Hard Segovia challenger · SF

Predicted probability

Matteo Martineau

France

44.68%

Oliver Crawford

Great Britain

55.32%

Average Odds

2.78 / 1.40

Market probability

33.49% / 66.51%

Why This Prediction?

Oliver Crawford is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1629 vs 1539), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1642 vs 1641) and fewer double faults per game (0.17 vs 0.22).

Player Comparison

1538.5 Elo 1629.4

1640.6 Elo (surface) 1642.1

148 Wins (Challenger) 77

82 Wins (surface) 41

8 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.266 Dominance ratio 0.926

335 Rank 237

27.5 Age 27.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matteo Martineau

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–5L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Oliver Crawford

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matteo Martineau Oliver Crawford

1st Serve In %

66.8%

58.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.7%

70.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.6%

50.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.4%

24.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.7%

45.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.67

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.43

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.4%

66.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.4%

67.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

41.8%

48.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

29.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.3%

50.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matteo Martineau Oliver Crawford

Break Points Saved %

60.3%

60.6%

Break Points Converted %

27.7%

42.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.5%

52.9%

Break Points Converted %

39.7%

39.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matteo Martineau 0 – 0 Oliver Crawford

Hard Segovia challenger · 2026-07-25

SF

Matteo Martineau #335

Oliver Crawford #237

6-3 5-7 7-6

6 Aces 2

3 Double Faults 2

108 Service Points 91

83 First Serve In 56

59 First Serve Won 42

12 Second Serve Won 18

7 Break Points Saved 1

10 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.8 Average Odds 1.4

Matteo Martineau vs Oliver Crawford — Prediction