ATP tennis predict — Matteo Martineau vs Lui Maxted

Challenger Hard Roehampton challenger · 1. round 12:00

Predicted probability

Matteo Martineau

France

64.14%

Lui Maxted

Great Britain

35.86%

Average Odds

1.93 / 1.80

Market probability

48.26% / 51.74%

Why This Prediction?

Matteo Martineau is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1641 vs 1465), a stronger serve (67.6% vs 60.7% of service points won) and a higher Elo rating (1527 vs 1468).

Player Comparison

1527.0 Elo 1467.9

1640.8 Elo (surface) 1465.4

149 Wins (Challenger) 7

83 Wins (surface) 4

8 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.299 Dominance ratio 1.086

286 Rank 403

27.6 Age 22.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matteo Martineau

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–5L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Lui Maxted

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-08-18.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matteo Martineau Lui Maxted

1st Serve In %

66.8%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

71.7%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.6%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.4%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.7%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.67

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.43

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.4%

69.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.4%

68.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

41.8%

46.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

31.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.3%

57.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matteo Martineau Lui Maxted

Break Points Saved %

60.3%

—

Break Points Converted %

27.7%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.5%

61.4%

Break Points Converted %

39.7%

54.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matteo Martineau 0 – 0 Lui Maxted

Hard Roehampton challenger · 2026-08-18

1. round

Lui Maxted #403

Matteo Martineau #286

7-5 7-6

7 Aces 2

7 Double Faults 2

79 Service Points 82

58 First Serve In 68

41 First Serve Won 49

8 Second Serve Won 4

5 Break Points Saved 3

8 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.8 Average Odds 1.9

Matteo Martineau vs Lui Maxted — Prediction