ATP tennis predict — Matteo Martineau vs Justin Boulais

Challenger Hard St. Tropez challenger · qualification - round of 16 10:00

Predicted probability

Matteo Martineau

France

50.59%

Justin Boulais

Canada

49.41%

Average Odds

1.53 / 2.36

Market probability

60.67% / 39.33%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1574.1 Elo 1585.7

1602.9 Elo (surface) 1572.0

152 Wins (Challenger) 48

86 Wins (surface) 48

7 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.047 Dominance ratio 1.041

276 Rank 418

27.7 Age 24.9

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matteo Martineau

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–5L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Justin Boulais

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matteo Martineau Justin Boulais

1st Serve In %

66.8%

56.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.7%

60.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.6%

47.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.4%

21.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.7%

43.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.67

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.43

0.56

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.4%

60.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.4%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

41.8%

50.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

34.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.3%

51.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.26

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.42

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matteo Martineau Justin Boulais

Break Points Saved %

60.3%

57.7%

Break Points Converted %

27.7%

16.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.5%

54.4%

Break Points Converted %

39.7%

46.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matteo Martineau 0 – 0 Justin Boulais

Hard St. Tropez challenger · 2026-09-21

qualification - round of 16

Matteo Martineau #276

Justin Boulais #418

6-3 6-1

5 Aces 0

3 Double Faults 3

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

25 First Serve Won 18

12 Second Serve Won 9

1 Break Points Saved 3

1 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.4

Matteo Martineau vs Justin Boulais — Prediction