ATP tennis predict — Matteo Martineau vs Gonzalo Villanueva

Challenger Hard Segovia challenger · R16

Predicted probability

Matteo Martineau

France

66.26%

Gonzalo Villanueva

Argentina

33.74%

Average Odds

1.60 / 2.23

Market probability

58.22% / 41.78%

Why This Prediction?

Matteo Martineau is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1618 vs 1455), a stronger serve (64.1% vs 63.4% of service points won) and more wins on hard courts (80 vs 11).

Player Comparison

1509.2 Elo 1640.5

1617.7 Elo (surface) 1455.3

146 Wins (Challenger) 182

80 Wins (surface) 11

7 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.230 Dominance ratio 1.296

335 Rank 320

27.5 Age 31.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matteo Martineau

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–5L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Gonzalo Villanueva

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matteo Martineau Gonzalo Villanueva

1st Serve In %

66.8%

58.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.7%

63.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.6%

44.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.4%

31.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.7%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.67

0.11

Double Faults per Service Game

0.43

0.51

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.4%

62.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.4%

63.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

41.8%

57.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

38.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.3%

57.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matteo Martineau Gonzalo Villanueva

Break Points Saved %

60.3%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

27.7%

45.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.5%

57.9%

Break Points Converted %

39.7%

47.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matteo Martineau 0 – 0 Gonzalo Villanueva

Hard Segovia challenger · 2026-07-23

R16

Matteo Martineau #335

Gonzalo Villanueva #320

6-3 7-6

7 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 2

68 Service Points 70

51 First Serve In 43

40 First Serve Won 28

9 Second Serve Won 16

1 Break Points Saved 0

2 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.2

Matteo Martineau vs Gonzalo Villanueva — Prediction