ATP tennis predict — Matteo Covato vs Leo Raquillet

Challenger Hard Cassis challenger · qualification - 1. round 10:00

Predicted probability

Matteo Covato

Italy

23.60%

Leo Raquillet

France

76.40%

Average Odds

8.29 / 1.06

Market probability

11.34% / 88.66%

Why This Prediction?

Leo Raquillet is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1417 vs 1265), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1381 vs 1359) and better recent form (5 wins in his last 15 matches vs 2).

Player Comparison

1265.3 Elo 1417.3

1359.2 Elo (surface) 1380.6

5 Wins (Challenger) 11

0 Wins (surface) 6

2 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.776 Dominance ratio 0.980

753 Rank 662

None Age 20.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matteo Covato

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Leo Raquillet

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–6L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matteo Covato Leo Raquillet

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

61.9%

62.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.6%

63.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

41.9%

45.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.0%

35.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.6%

48.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matteo Covato Leo Raquillet

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

59.5%

45.7%

Break Points Converted %

43.4%

48.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matteo Covato 0 – 0 Leo Raquillet

Hard Cassis challenger · 2026-09-06

qualification - 1. round

Leo Raquillet #662

Matteo Covato #753

6-2 6-2

6 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 4

50 Service Points 52

38 First Serve In 28

19 First Serve Won 21

5 Second Serve Won 12

3 Break Points Saved 2

8 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 8.3

Matteo Covato vs Leo Raquillet — Prediction