ATP tennis predict — Matteo Covato vs Fausto Tabacco

Challenger Clay Como challenger · qualification - 1. round 14:30

Predicted probability

Matteo Covato

Italy

24.77%

Fausto Tabacco

Italy

75.23%

Average Odds

9.11 / 1.04

Market probability

10.25% / 89.75%

Why This Prediction?

Fausto Tabacco is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1475 vs 1281), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1476 vs 1388) and more wins on clay courts (9 vs 5).

Player Comparison

1281.4 Elo 1474.9

1387.5 Elo (surface) 1476.5

5 Wins (Challenger) 10

5 Wins (surface) 9

2 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.704 Dominance ratio 0.902

742 Rank 557

None Age 24.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matteo Covato

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Fausto Tabacco

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-06-28.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matteo Covato Fausto Tabacco

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

61.9%

65.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.6%

63.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

41.9%

45.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.0%

31.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.6%

54.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.16

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matteo Covato Fausto Tabacco

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

59.5%

57.5%

Break Points Converted %

43.4%

40.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matteo Covato 0 – 0 Fausto Tabacco

Clay Como challenger · 2026-08-30

qualification - 1. round

Fausto Tabacco #563

Matteo Covato #753

7-5 3-6 6-3

1 Aces 1

4 Double Faults 10

93 Service Points 96

67 First Serve In 57

46 First Serve Won 40

6 Second Serve Won 18

6 Break Points Saved 7

11 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.0 Average Odds 9.1

Matteo Covato vs Fausto Tabacco — Prediction