ATP tennis predict — Matteo Berrettini vs Stan Wawrinka

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 21:00

Predicted probability

Matteo Berrettini

Italy

62.18%

Stan Wawrinka

Switzerland

37.82%

Average Odds

1.22 / 4.37

Market probability

78.18% / 21.82%

Why This Prediction?

Matteo Berrettini is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1842 vs 1692), a better head-to-head record against Stan Wawrinka (1-0) and more aces per game (0.28 vs 0.24).

Player Comparison

1842.3 Elo 1692.1

1689.5 Elo (surface) 1744.5

240 Wins 601

115 Wins (surface) 351

9 Last 15 form 5

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.944 Dominance ratio 1.116

43 Rank 127

30.4 Age 41.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matteo Berrettini

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Stan Wawrinka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matteo Berrettini Stan Wawrinka

1st Serve In %

65.2%

59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.9%

76.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.1%

52.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.7%

26.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.0%

48.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.61

0.67

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.4%

56.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.8%

75.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.6%

56.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.4%

27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.1%

44.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.58

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matteo Berrettini Stan Wawrinka

Break Points Saved %

72.7%

55.4%

Break Points Converted %

47.2%

32.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.3%

67.6%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

34.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matteo Berrettini 1 – 0 Stan Wawrinka

Hard US Open · 2026-08-31

1. round

Matteo Berrettini #43

Stan Wawrinka #127

7-6 7-6 6-0

13 Aces 7

3 Double Faults 6

106 Service Points 103

64 First Serve In 56

51 First Serve Won 40

21 Second Serve Won 18

11 Break Points Saved 2

13 Break Points Faced 7

44 Winners 31

31 Unforced Errors 36

1.2 Average Odds 4.4

Grass Wimbledon · 2026-06-30

1. round

Matteo Berrettini #51

Stan Wawrinka #109

6-7 7-6 7-6 7-6

18 Aces 29

7 Double Faults 4

180 Service Points 166

108 First Serve In 116

88 First Serve Won 100

43 Second Serve Won 29

5 Break Points Saved 1

6 Break Points Faced 2

44 Winners 66

31 Unforced Errors 51

1.2 Average Odds 4.2

Matteo Berrettini vs Stan Wawrinka — Prediction