ATP tennis predict — Matteo Berrettini vs Mariano Navone

ATP Hard Montreal · 1. round

Predicted probability

Matteo Berrettini

Italy

75.35%

Mariano Navone

Argentina

24.65%

Average Odds

1.54 / 2.47

Market probability

61.60% / 38.40%

Why This Prediction?

Matteo Berrettini is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1708 vs 1429), a higher Elo rating (1859 vs 1768) and a stronger serve (65.1% vs 59.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1859.2 Elo 1768.0

1708.3 Elo (surface) 1428.6

239 Wins 62

114 Wins (surface) 10

9 Last 15 form 9

3 Head-to-head wins 0

0.867 Dominance ratio 0.937

41 Rank 44

30.3 Age 25.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matteo Berrettini

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Mariano Navone

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matteo Berrettini Mariano Navone

1st Serve In %

65.2%

63.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.9%

72.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.1%

54.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.7%

30.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.0%

45.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.61

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.4%

70.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.8%

62.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.6%

56.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.4%

37.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.1%

49.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.58

0.05

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.13

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matteo Berrettini Mariano Navone

Break Points Saved %

72.7%

56.9%

Break Points Converted %

47.2%

28.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.3%

54.4%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

50.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matteo Berrettini 3 – 0 Mariano Navone

Hard US Open · 2026-09-03

2. round

Mariano Navone #49

Matteo Berrettini #43

3-6 6-3 6-4 7-6

15 Aces 5

6 Double Faults 4

127 Service Points 132

72 First Serve In 93

56 First Serve Won 65

26 Second Serve Won 24

4 Break Points Saved 7

7 Break Points Faced 9

44 Winners 25

77 Unforced Errors 37

2.5 Average Odds 1.5

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-03

1. round

Mariano Navone #44

Matteo Berrettini #40

6-3 6-7 6-3

4 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 2

85 Service Points 125

56 First Serve In 87

39 First Serve Won 58

17 Second Serve Won 22

2 Break Points Saved 11

5 Break Points Faced 12

25 Winners 11

78 Unforced Errors 43

2.5 Average Odds 1.5

Clay Cagliari CH · 2026-04-28

R16

Matteo Berrettini #92

Mariano Navone #45

7-5 6-3

6 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 2

60 Service Points 67

33 First Serve In 54

29 First Serve Won 33

14 Second Serve Won 6

1 Break Points Saved 3

2 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Monte Carlo Masters · 2025-04-07

R64

Matteo Berrettini #34

Mariano Navone #70

6-4 6-4

2 Aces 0

4 Double Faults 2

69 Service Points 66

44 First Serve In 43

29 First Serve Won 24

9 Second Serve Won 9

4 Break Points Saved 6

7 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Marrakech · 2024-04-01

SF

Matteo Berrettini #135

Mariano Navone #60

6-7(4) 6-3 6-2

6 Aces 0

2 Double Faults 1

86 Service Points 107

65 First Serve In 86

50 First Serve Won 53

11 Second Serve Won 8

1 Break Points Saved 7

2 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Matteo Berrettini vs Mariano Navone — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Matteo Berrettini — Last 10

Mariano Navone — Last 10