ATP tennis predict — Matteo Berrettini vs Brandon Nakashima

ATP Hard Shanghai · 2. round 07:50

Predicted probability

Matteo Berrettini

Italy

46.13%

Brandon Nakashima

USA

53.87%

Average Odds

2.32 / 1.59

Market probability

40.66% / 59.34%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1991.5 Elo 2049.7

1935.4 Elo (surface) 1993.7

243 Wins 184

118 Wins (surface) 127

9 Last 15 form 11

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.014 Dominance ratio 1.107

46 Rank 18

30.5 Age 25.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matteo Berrettini

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–5L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Brandon Nakashima

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matteo Berrettini Brandon Nakashima

1st Serve In %

67.6%

58.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.1%

78.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.8%

54.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.9%

25.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.8%

51.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.52

0.75

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.4%

66.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.8%

73.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.6%

54.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.4%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.1%

49.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.58

0.62

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matteo Berrettini Brandon Nakashima

Break Points Saved %

75.0%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%

37.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.3%

63.5%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

46.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matteo Berrettini 1 – 0 Brandon Nakashima

Hard Australian Open · 2022-01-17

R128

Matteo Berrettini #7

Brandon Nakashima #68

4-6 6-2 7-6(5) 6-3

21 Aces 12

2 Double Faults 2

129 Service Points 117

78 First Serve In 77

57 First Serve Won 57

30 Second Serve Won 19

8 Break Points Saved 8

9 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Matteo Berrettini vs Brandon Nakashima — Prediction