ATP tennis predict — Matteo Berrettini vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

ATP Hard Tokyo · R16 03:00

Predicted probability

Matteo Berrettini

Italy

68.10%

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Paraguay

31.90%

Average Odds

1.60 / 2.31

Market probability

59.08% / 40.92%

Why This Prediction?

Matteo Berrettini is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1948 vs 1741), a higher Elo rating (2000 vs 1903) and a stronger serve (67.9% vs 62.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1999.5 Elo 1902.9

1947.6 Elo (surface) 1740.5

242 Wins 24

117 Wins (surface) 10

9 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.014 Dominance ratio 1.026

47 Rank 56

30.5 Age 22.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matteo Berrettini

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matteo Berrettini Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

1st Serve In %

66.1%

56.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.6%

70.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.7%

46.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.5%

28.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.6%

53.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.4%

62.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.8%

65.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.6%

49.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.4%

35.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.1%

54.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.58

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matteo Berrettini Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Break Points Saved %

72.0%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

46.6%

45.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.3%

54.1%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

50.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matteo Berrettini and Adolfo Daniel Vallejo have never played each other.

Matteo Berrettini vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo — Prediction