ATP tennis predict — Matteo Arnaldi vs Taylor Fritz

ATP Hard Shanghai · 2. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Matteo Arnaldi

Italy

28.39%

Taylor Fritz

USA

71.61%

Average Odds

3.99 / 1.24

Market probability

23.71% / 76.29%

Why This Prediction?

Taylor Fritz is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2027 vs 1780), a higher Elo rating (2109 vs 1901) and a stronger serve (68.9% vs 65.8% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1900.8 Elo 2109.1

1779.8 Elo (surface) 2027.0

103 Wins 397

59 Wins (surface) 276

6 Last 15 form 10

1 Head-to-head wins 1

1.189 Dominance ratio 1.195

38 Rank 12

25.6 Age 29.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matteo Arnaldi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Taylor Fritz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–4L · 73.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matteo Arnaldi Taylor Fritz

1st Serve In %

56.7%

61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.0%

80.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.6%

47.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.1%

28.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.2%

52.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.71

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.7%

64.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.8%

80.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.0%

55.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.7%

30.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.1%

49.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.88

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matteo Arnaldi Taylor Fritz

Break Points Saved %

61.2%

71.1%

Break Points Converted %

41.7%

35.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.6%

74.4%

Break Points Converted %

41.0%

42.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matteo Arnaldi 1 – 1 Taylor Fritz

Hard Washington · 2025-07-21

R16

Taylor Fritz #4

Matteo Arnaldi #44

6-3 6-4

10 Aces 7

2 Double Faults 1

61 Service Points 76

39 First Serve In 42

37 First Serve Won 32

7 Second Serve Won 11

4 Break Points Saved 8

4 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Acapulco · 2024-02-26

R32

Matteo Arnaldi #42

Taylor Fritz #10

6-4 4-6 6-3

8 Aces 9

4 Double Faults 3

89 Service Points 101

51 First Serve In 61

40 First Serve Won 39

18 Second Serve Won 20

3 Break Points Saved 11

6 Break Points Faced 15