ATP tennis predict — Matteo Arnaldi vs Rei Sakamoto

ATP Hard Tokyo · 1. round 03:00

Predicted probability

Matteo Arnaldi

Italy

48.01%

Rei Sakamoto

Japan

51.99%

Average Odds

1.99 / 1.78

Market probability

47.21% / 52.79%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1885.3 Elo 1823.2

1748.9 Elo (surface) 1795.9

101 Wins 18

57 Wins (surface) 14

7 Last 15 form 9

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.189 Dominance ratio 0.962

37 Rank 137

25.6 Age 20.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matteo Arnaldi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Rei Sakamoto

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matteo Arnaldi Rei Sakamoto

1st Serve In %

58.1%

60.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.4%

76.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.2%

51.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.5%

21.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.1%

46.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.52

0.61

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.7%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.8%

75.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.0%

54.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.7%

25.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.1%

40.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matteo Arnaldi Rei Sakamoto

Break Points Saved %

62.2%

57.5%

Break Points Converted %

41.8%

34.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.6%

60.4%

Break Points Converted %

41.0%

45.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matteo Arnaldi 1 – 0 Rei Sakamoto

Hard Shanghai Masters · 2025-10-01

R128

Matteo Arnaldi #71

Rei Sakamoto #188

7-6(3) 6-4

6 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 2

66 Service Points 72

45 First Serve In 39

35 First Serve Won 27

9 Second Serve Won 18

1 Break Points Saved 7

3 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Matteo Arnaldi vs Rei Sakamoto — Prediction