ATP tennis predict — Matteo Arnaldi vs Lorenzo Musetti

ATP Hard Washington · 1. round

Predicted probability

Matteo Arnaldi

Italy

51.69%

Lorenzo Musetti

Italy

48.31%

Average Odds

2.33 / 1.59

Market probability

40.56% / 59.44%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1759.7 Elo 1827.7

1624.9 Elo (surface) 1637.0

100 Wins 208

56 Wins (surface) 100

10 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 4

1.031 Dominance ratio 0.922

377 Rank 25

25.4 Age 24.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matteo Arnaldi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Lorenzo Musetti

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-07-27.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matteo Arnaldi Lorenzo Musetti

1st Serve In %

58.1%

53.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.4%

65.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.2%

44.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.5%

26.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.1%

45.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.52

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.7%

63.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.8%

68.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.0%

50.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.7%

39.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.1%

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matteo Arnaldi Lorenzo Musetti

Break Points Saved %

62.2%

54.5%

Break Points Converted %

41.8%

35.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.6%

65.6%

Break Points Converted %

41.0%

49.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matteo Arnaldi 0 – 4 Lorenzo Musetti

Hard Washington · 2026-07-27

1. round

Lorenzo Musetti #15

Matteo Arnaldi #35

6-0 3-1

3 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 0

28 Service Points 24

14 First Serve In 15

9 First Serve Won 14

2 Second Serve Won 6

3 Break Points Saved 0

7 Break Points Faced 0

6 Winners 10

20 Unforced Errors 4

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Hard Australian Open · 2025-01-13

R128

Lorenzo Musetti #15

Matteo Arnaldi #39

7-6(4) 4-6 7-6(5) 6-3

6 Aces 7

5 Double Faults 13

147 Service Points 183

89 First Serve In 96

56 First Serve Won 60

30 Second Serve Won 40

8 Break Points Saved 19

16 Break Points Faced 28

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Bastad · 2023-07-17

R16

Lorenzo Musetti #16

Matteo Arnaldi #75

6-3 4-6 7-6(6)

6 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 6

87 Service Points 112

49 First Serve In 68

38 First Serve Won 43

18 Second Serve Won 22

1 Break Points Saved 8

4 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Rome Masters · 2023-05-08

R64

Lorenzo Musetti #19

Matteo Arnaldi #99

6-4 6-4

1 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 4

66 Service Points 75

42 First Serve In 43

30 First Serve Won 29

16 Second Serve Won 16

3 Break Points Saved 5

3 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Barletta CH · 2019-04-08

R32

Lorenzo Musetti #582

Matteo Arnaldi

6-2 6-0

1 Aces 0

3 Double Faults 5

46 Service Points 44

29 First Serve In 23

21 First Serve Won 10

11 Second Serve Won 8

5 Break Points Saved 1

5 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Matteo Arnaldi vs Lorenzo Musetti — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Matteo Arnaldi — Last 10

Lorenzo Musetti — Last 10