ATP tennis predict — Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 19:00

Predicted probability

Matteo Arnaldi

Italy

54.94%

James Duckworth

Australia

45.06%

Average Odds

1.59 / 2.37

Market probability

59.85% / 40.15%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1737.6 Elo 1695.9

1604.2 Elo (surface) 1709.9

101 Wins 173

57 Wins (surface) 117

8 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.188 Dominance ratio 0.987

36 Rank 71

25.5 Age 34.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matteo Arnaldi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

James Duckworth

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 7W–6L · 53.8%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matteo Arnaldi James Duckworth

1st Serve In %

58.1%

55.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.4%

72.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.2%

50.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.5%

26.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.1%

49.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.52

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.7%

52.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.8%

77.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.0%

56.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.7%

27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.1%

50.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.60

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matteo Arnaldi James Duckworth

Break Points Saved %

62.2%

64.4%

Break Points Converted %

41.8%

34.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.6%

84.6%

Break Points Converted %

41.0%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matteo Arnaldi 0 – 0 James Duckworth

Hard US Open · 2026-08-31

1. round

James Duckworth #71

Matteo Arnaldi #36

5-7 6-3 6-2 7-6

5 Aces 16

7 Double Faults 4

134 Service Points 139

82 First Serve In 75

61 First Serve Won 55

18 Second Serve Won 32

13 Break Points Saved 11

19 Break Points Faced 15

40 Winners 47

41 Unforced Errors 39

2.4 Average Odds 1.6

Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth — Prediction