ATP tennis predict — Matias Soto vs Lautaro Midon

Challenger Clay Curitiba challenger · 1. round 15:00

Predicted probability

Matias Soto

Chile

36.46%

Lautaro Midon

Argentina

63.54%

Average Odds

2.29 / 1.52

Market probability

39.90% / 60.10%

Why This Prediction?

Lautaro Midon is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1751 vs 1672), a higher Elo rating (1735 vs 1656) and fewer double faults per game (0.07 vs 0.15).

Player Comparison

1656.1 Elo 1735.5

1671.7 Elo (surface) 1750.7

77 Wins (Challenger) 75

64 Wins (surface) 66

8 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.009 Dominance ratio 0.938

248 Rank 200

27.4 Age 22.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matias Soto

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Lautaro Midon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-06-30.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matias Soto Lautaro Midon

1st Serve In %

59.9%

60.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.3%

65.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.8%

47.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.2%

29.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.2%

52.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.29

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.13

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.3%

58.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.0%

64.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.6%

52.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.0%

31.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.5%

49.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matias Soto Lautaro Midon

Break Points Saved %

51.9%

57.4%

Break Points Converted %

55.6%

44.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.1%

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

38.4%

41.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matias Soto and Lautaro Midon have never played each other.

Matias Soto vs Lautaro Midon — Prediction