ATP tennis predict — Matias Soto vs Kilian Feldbausch

Challenger Clay Como challenger · 1. round 10:00

Predicted probability

Matias Soto

Chile

25.82%

Kilian Feldbausch

Switzerland

74.18%

Average Odds

4.26 / 1.20

Market probability

21.98% / 78.02%

Why This Prediction?

Kilian Feldbausch is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1732 vs 1609), a higher Elo rating (1708 vs 1594) and a stronger return game (46.7% vs 34.3% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1593.8 Elo 1707.8

1608.7 Elo (surface) 1732.4

75 Wins (Challenger) 63

62 Wins (surface) 58

9 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.916 Dominance ratio 1.208

261 Rank 233

27.4 Age 21.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matias Soto

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Kilian Feldbausch

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matias Soto Kilian Feldbausch

1st Serve In %

59.9%

65.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.3%

62.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.8%

50.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.2%

34.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.2%

53.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.29

0.12

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.3%

62.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.0%

58.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.6%

47.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.0%

33.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.5%

45.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.15

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matias Soto Kilian Feldbausch

Break Points Saved %

51.9%

57.7%

Break Points Converted %

55.6%

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.1%

57.3%

Break Points Converted %

38.4%

46.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matias Soto 0 – 0 Kilian Feldbausch

Clay Como challenger · 2026-09-01

1. round

Kilian Feldbausch #233

Matias Soto #261

6-3 6-2

1 Aces 2

0 Double Faults 0

51 Service Points 45

25 First Serve In 30

12 First Serve Won 20

9 Second Serve Won 9

6 Break Points Saved 3

12 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.3

Matias Soto vs Kilian Feldbausch — Prediction