ATP tennis predict — Mathys Erhard vs Valentin Royer

Challenger Hard Olbia challenger · 1. round 10:00

Predicted probability

Mathys Erhard

France

21.01%

Valentin Royer

France

78.99%

Average Odds

3.45 / 1.28

Market probability

27.06% / 72.94%

Why This Prediction?

Valentin Royer is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1825 vs 1635), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1743 vs 1591) and more wins on hard courts (26 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1635.4 Elo 1825.2

1590.7 Elo (surface) 1742.6

83 Wins (Challenger) 116

25 Wins (surface) 44

9 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.020 Dominance ratio 1.426

373 Rank 105

25.0 Age 25.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mathys Erhard

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–7L · 41.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Valentin Royer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mathys Erhard Valentin Royer

1st Serve In %

64.2%

60.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.6%

72.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.0%

45.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.7%

32.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

62.2%

46.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.12

0.51

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.6%

64.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.2%

69.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.9%

56.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.8%

39.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

38.9%

60.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.12

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mathys Erhard Valentin Royer

Break Points Saved %

65.1%

51.6%

Break Points Converted %

47.5%

37.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.8%

64.7%

Break Points Converted %

36.2%

45.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mathys Erhard and Valentin Royer have never played each other.

Mathys Erhard vs Valentin Royer — Prediction