ATP tennis predict — Mathys Erhard vs Paul Theate

Challenger Hard Mouilleron-Le-Captif challenger · qualification - 1. round 16:00

Predicted probability

Mathys Erhard

France

89.92%

Paul Theate

France

10.08%

Average Odds

1.03 / 10.58

Market probability

91.13% / 8.87%

Why This Prediction?

Mathys Erhard is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1640 vs 1436), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1584 vs 1500) and more career match wins (80 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1640.3 Elo 1435.7

1583.9 Elo (surface) 1500

80 Wins (Challenger) 0

22 Wins (surface) 0

9 Last 15 form 0

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.020 Dominance ratio 0.676

360 Rank -

24.9 Age 24.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mathys Erhard

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–6L · 45.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Paul Theate

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

No market odds recorded for this player yet.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mathys Erhard Paul Theate

1st Serve In %

64.2%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

63.6%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.0%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.7%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

62.2%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.12

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.0%

53.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.1%

47.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.7%

52.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.3%

25.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.2%

43.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.10

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.40

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mathys Erhard Paul Theate

Break Points Saved %

65.1%

—

Break Points Converted %

47.5%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

51.0%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

28.8%

100.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mathys Erhard and Paul Theate have never played each other.

Mathys Erhard vs Paul Theate — Prediction