ATP tennis predict — Mathys Erhard vs Oliver Tarvet

Challenger Hard Villena challenger · qualification - 1. round 11:00

Predicted probability

Mathys Erhard

France

29.71%

Oliver Tarvet

Great Britain

70.29%

Average Odds

3.68 / 1.25

Market probability

25.35% / 74.65%

Why This Prediction?

Oliver Tarvet is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1841 vs 1624), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1728 vs 1570) and a stronger return game (40.9% vs 35.6% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1624.4 Elo 1841.1

1569.5 Elo (surface) 1728.4

81 Wins (Challenger) 15

23 Wins (surface) 13

8 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.020 Dominance ratio 1.105

367 Rank 302

24.9 Age 22.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mathys Erhard

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–6L · 45.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Oliver Tarvet

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mathys Erhard Oliver Tarvet

1st Serve In %

64.2%

59.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.6%

75.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.0%

54.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.7%

29.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

62.2%

54.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.12

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.2%

62.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.8%

72.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.0%

46.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.4%

33.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.0%

53.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.56

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mathys Erhard Oliver Tarvet

Break Points Saved %

65.1%

70.2%

Break Points Converted %

47.5%

39.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.8%

63.9%

Break Points Converted %

27.8%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mathys Erhard and Oliver Tarvet have never played each other.

Mathys Erhard vs Oliver Tarvet — Prediction