ATP tennis predict — Mathys Erhard vs Leo Raquillet

Challenger Hard Olbia challenger · qualification - round of 16 11:30

Predicted probability

Mathys Erhard

France

77.79%

Leo Raquillet

France

22.21%

Average Odds

1.28 / 3.34

Market probability

72.29% / 27.71%

Why This Prediction?

Mathys Erhard is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1617 vs 1382), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1555 vs 1371) and a stronger serve (65.1% vs 56.8% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1617.2 Elo 1381.8

1554.9 Elo (surface) 1370.8

81 Wins (Challenger) 12

23 Wins (surface) 7

8 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.020 Dominance ratio 0.961

373 Rank 710

25.0 Age 21.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mathys Erhard

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–7L · 41.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Leo Raquillet

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–6L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mathys Erhard Leo Raquillet

1st Serve In %

64.2%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

63.6%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.0%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.7%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

62.2%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.12

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.8%

62.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.1%

63.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.3%

45.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.4%

35.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.6%

48.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mathys Erhard Leo Raquillet

Break Points Saved %

65.1%

—

Break Points Converted %

47.5%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.2%

45.7%

Break Points Converted %

27.1%

48.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mathys Erhard and Leo Raquillet have never played each other.

Mathys Erhard vs Leo Raquillet — Prediction