ATP tennis predict — Mathys Erhard vs Joel Schwaerzler

Challenger Hard Grodzisk Mazowiecki challenger · SF 13:00

Predicted probability

Mathys Erhard

France

34.23%

Joel Schwaerzler

Austria

65.77%

Average Odds

2.20 / 1.62

Market probability

42.41% / 57.59%

Why This Prediction?

Joel Schwaerzler is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1721 vs 1580), a stronger serve (66.8% vs 62.8% of service points won) and more aces per game (0.18 vs 0.12).

Player Comparison

1632.1 Elo 1624.0

1580.0 Elo (surface) 1721.3

77 Wins (Challenger) 70

19 Wins (surface) 15

10 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.083 Dominance ratio 1.209

359 Rank 182

24.8 Age 20.5

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mathys Erhard

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–6L · 45.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Joel Schwaerzler

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–8L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mathys Erhard Joel Schwaerzler

1st Serve In %

64.2%

58.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.6%

70.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.0%

50.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.7%

26.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

62.2%

44.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.12

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.0%

59.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.1%

75.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.7%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.3%

25.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.2%

50.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mathys Erhard Joel Schwaerzler

Break Points Saved %

65.1%

57.6%

Break Points Converted %

47.5%

27.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

51.0%

63.8%

Break Points Converted %

28.8%

44.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mathys Erhard 0 – 1 Joel Schwaerzler

Hard Grodzisk Mazowiecki challenger · 2026-08-08

SF

Joel Schwaerzler #182

Mathys Erhard #359

3-6 7-6 6-4

8 Aces 9

1 Double Faults 1

98 Service Points 91

60 First Serve In 59

50 First Serve Won 49

22 Second Serve Won 17

5 Break Points Saved 2

6 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.2

Clay Kigali 1 CH · 2026-03-02

R32

Joel Schwaerzler #214

Mathys Erhard #330

7-6(5) 7-6(1)

10 Aces 3

0 Double Faults 2

69 Service Points 100

41 First Serve In 66

34 First Serve Won 46

21 Second Serve Won 15

1 Break Points Saved 4

2 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Mathys Erhard vs Joel Schwaerzler — Prediction