ATP tennis predict — Mathys Erhard vs Daniil Glinka

Challenger Hard Cassis challenger · R16 10:30

Predicted probability

Mathys Erhard

France

38.50%

Daniil Glinka

Estonia

61.50%

Average Odds

2.17 / 1.63

Market probability

42.89% / 57.11%

Why This Prediction?

Daniil Glinka is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1716 vs 1640), more wins on hard courts (73 vs 22) and a stronger return game (40.3% vs 35.6% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1681.1 Elo 1698.1

1640.2 Elo (surface) 1715.6

80 Wins (Challenger) 79

22 Wins (surface) 73

10 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.020 Dominance ratio 1.159

339 Rank 156

24.9 Age 26.3

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mathys Erhard

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–6L · 45.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Daniil Glinka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–3L · 72.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mathys Erhard Daniil Glinka

1st Serve In %

64.2%

61.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.6%

71.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.0%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.7%

23.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

62.2%

44.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.12

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.0%

65.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.1%

68.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.7%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.3%

35.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.2%

51.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mathys Erhard Daniil Glinka

Break Points Saved %

65.1%

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

47.5%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

51.0%

54.2%

Break Points Converted %

28.8%

41.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mathys Erhard 0 – 0 Daniil Glinka

Hard Cassis challenger · 2026-09-09

R16

Daniil Glinka #156

Mathys Erhard #339

7-6 4-2

3 Aces 7

1 Double Faults 0

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

23 First Serve Won 27

11 Second Serve Won 11

3 Break Points Saved 0

6 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.2

Mathys Erhard vs Daniil Glinka — Prediction