ATP tennis predict — Mathys Erhard vs Alberto Barroso Campos

Challenger Hard Mouilleron-Le-Captif challenger · qualification - round of 16 14:00

Predicted probability

Mathys Erhard

France

72.43%

Alberto Barroso Campos

Spain

27.57%

Average Odds

1.23 / 3.82

Market probability

75.64% / 24.36%

Why This Prediction?

Mathys Erhard is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1648 vs 1475), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1604 vs 1485) and a stronger serve (65.1% vs 59.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1647.8 Elo 1474.6

1603.7 Elo (surface) 1485.2

81 Wins (Challenger) 28

23 Wins (surface) 25

9 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.020 Dominance ratio 0.909

367 Rank 705

24.9 Age 30.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mathys Erhard

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–6L · 45.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Alberto Barroso Campos

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-07-06.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mathys Erhard Alberto Barroso Campos

1st Serve In %

64.2%

64.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.6%

56.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.0%

43.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.7%

29.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

62.2%

44.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.12

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.11

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.5%

65.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.0%

65.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.1%

46.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.1%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.3%

41.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.57

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mathys Erhard Alberto Barroso Campos

Break Points Saved %

65.1%

69.2%

Break Points Converted %

47.5%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

52.2%

38.3%

Break Points Converted %

27.9%

45.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mathys Erhard and Alberto Barroso Campos have never played each other.

Mathys Erhard vs Alberto Barroso Campos — Prediction