ATP tennis predict — Mathys Domenc vs Daniel Jade

Challenger Hard St. Tropez challenger · qualification - round of 16 10:00

Predicted probability

Mathys Domenc

France

28.46%

Daniel Jade

France

71.54%

Average Odds

2.98 / 1.35

Market probability

31.18% / 68.82%

Why This Prediction?

Daniel Jade is the favorite because he has better recent form (2 wins in his last 15 matches vs 1).

Player Comparison

1584.8 Elo 1470.3

1582.8 Elo (surface) 1499.1

1 Wins (Challenger) 2

1 Wins (surface) 1

1 Last 15 form 2

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.875 Dominance ratio 0.875

1175 Rank 643

17.2 Age 17.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mathys Domenc

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

1 matches with market odds since 2026-09-21.

Daniel Jade

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mathys Domenc Daniel Jade

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

—

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

49.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

30.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

43.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.12

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mathys Domenc Daniel Jade

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

46.2%

58.1%

Break Points Converted %

35.0%

43.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mathys Domenc 0 – 0 Daniel Jade

Hard St. Tropez challenger · 2026-09-21

qualification - round of 16

Daniel Jade #643

Mathys Domenc #1175

6-7 6-4 7-5

9 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 6

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

48 First Serve Won 48

30 Second Serve Won 27

13 Break Points Saved 6

20 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 3.0

Mathys Domenc vs Daniel Jade — Prediction