ATP tennis predict — Mathieu Scaglia vs Amit Vales

Challenger Hard Cassis challenger · qualification - 1. round 13:00

Predicted probability

Mathieu Scaglia

France

11.10%

Amit Vales

Israel

88.90%

Average Odds

3.27 / 1.30

Market probability

28.45% / 71.55%

Why This Prediction?

Amit Vales is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1534 vs 1448), a higher Elo rating (1512 vs 1409) and better recent form (8 wins in his last 15 matches vs 0).

Player Comparison

1408.8 Elo 1511.5

1447.5 Elo (surface) 1534.5

0 Wins (Challenger) 16

0 Wins (surface) 9

0 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.750 Dominance ratio 0.990

979 Rank 598

27.8 Age 21.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mathieu Scaglia

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

3 matches with market odds since 2026-09-06.

Amit Vales

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-28.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mathieu Scaglia Amit Vales

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

57.5%

56.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.2%

66.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

46.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.0%

33.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.0%

53.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.58

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mathieu Scaglia Amit Vales

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

58.3%

61.9%

Break Points Converted %

46.9%

47.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mathieu Scaglia 0 – 0 Amit Vales

Hard Cassis challenger · 2026-09-06

qualification - 1. round

Mathieu Scaglia #979

Amit Vales #598

4-6 6-2 7-6

12 Aces 4

3 Double Faults 4

95 Service Points 87

68 First Serve In 48

50 First Serve Won 31

15 Second Serve Won 24

4 Break Points Saved 2

6 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

3.3 Average Odds 1.3

Mathieu Scaglia vs Amit Vales — Prediction