ATP tennis predict — Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida vs Tomas Barrios Vera

Challenger Clay Curitiba challenger · QF 15:00

Predicted probability

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Brazil

52.64%

Tomas Barrios Vera

Chile

47.36%

Average Odds

1.85 / 1.67

Market probability

47.44% / 52.56%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1738.4 Elo 1762.9

1763.6 Elo (surface) 1736.8

148 Wins (Challenger) 251

143 Wins (surface) 207

9 Last 15 form 6

2 Head-to-head wins 2

1.247 Dominance ratio 1.064

270 Rank 135

25.5 Age 28.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Tomas Barrios Vera

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-08.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Tomas Barrios Vera

1st Serve In %

66.0%

65.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.9%

64.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.1%

49.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.3%

27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.0%

41.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.22

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.7%

63.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.6%

66.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

62.0%

53.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.1%

33.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.0%

47.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.29

0.24

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Tomas Barrios Vera

Break Points Saved %

58.3%

60.5%

Break Points Converted %

25.7%

35.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.0%

61.7%

Break Points Converted %

46.2%

37.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida 2 – 2 Tomas Barrios Vera

Clay Costa do Sauipe CH · 2025-10-20

R32

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida #316

Tomas Barrios Vera #118

7-6(4) 2-6 6-2

2 Aces 2

4 Double Faults 3

100 Service Points 106

51 First Serve In 69

28 First Serve Won 41

28 Second Serve Won 13

5 Break Points Saved 2

11 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Campinas CH · 2024-10-14

R16

Tomas Barrios Vera #170

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida #338

7-6(6) 6-1

1 Aces 0

2 Double Faults 4

81 Service Points 58

43 First Serve In 29

31 First Serve Won 19

19 Second Serve Won 13

3 Break Points Saved 0

5 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Concepcion CH · 2022-03-14

QF

Tomas Barrios Vera #145

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida #241

6-2 3-6 6-1

0 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 2

68 Service Points 80

47 First Serve In 55

34 First Serve Won 34

15 Second Serve Won 11

2 Break Points Saved 9

3 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Montevideo CH · 2021-11-08

R32

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida #272

Tomas Barrios Vera #141

6-4 7-5

0 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 3

70 Service Points 88

47 First Serve In 55

26 First Serve Won 26

13 Second Serve Won 18

0 Break Points Saved 9

4 Break Points Faced 15

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida vs Tomas Barrios Vera — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida — Last 10

Tomas Barrios Vera — Last 10