ATP tennis predict — Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida vs Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos

Challenger Clay Curitiba challenger · 1. round 16:30

Predicted probability

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Brazil

79.23%

Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos

Brazil

20.77%

Average Odds

- / -

Market probability

- / -

Why This Prediction?

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1721 vs 1526), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1747 vs 1506) and more wins on clay courts (141 vs 25).

Player Comparison

1720.9 Elo 1525.5

1747.2 Elo (surface) 1505.6

146 Wins (Challenger) 30

141 Wins (surface) 25

9 Last 15 form 10

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.247 Dominance ratio 0.905

270 Rank 435

25.5 Age 26.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos

1st Serve In %

66.0%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

69.9%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.1%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.0%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.22

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.6%

59.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

62.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.0%

51.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.8%

32.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.3%

49.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.24

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos

Break Points Saved %

58.3%

—

Break Points Converted %

25.7%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

57.0%

Break Points Converted %

45.6%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida 1 – 0 Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos

Clay Piracicaba challenger · 2026-06-26

R16

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida #409

Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos #503

6-3 4-6 6-2

3 Aces 2

4 Double Faults 3

95 Service Points 85

61 First Serve In 47

36 First Serve Won 34

16 Second Serve Won 20

10 Break Points Saved 5

15 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 6.3

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida vs Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos — Prediction