ATP tennis predict — Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida vs Oliver Tarvet

Challenger Hard Roehampton challenger · R16 15:00

Predicted probability

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Brazil

41.11%

Oliver Tarvet

Great Britain

58.89%

Average Odds

3.18 / 1.32

Market probability

29.33% / 70.67%

Why This Prediction?

Oliver Tarvet is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1535 vs 1474), a stronger serve (66.9% vs 62.4% of service points won) and more wins on hard courts (6 vs 3).

Player Comparison

1724.5 Elo 1645.2

1474.2 Elo (surface) 1534.6

144 Wins (Challenger) 8

3 Wins (surface) 6

12 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.046 Dominance ratio 0.928

281 Rank 380

25.4 Age 22.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Oliver Tarvet

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Oliver Tarvet

1st Serve In %

66.0%

59.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.9%

75.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.1%

54.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.3%

29.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.0%

54.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.22

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.6%

62.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

72.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.0%

46.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.8%

33.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.3%

53.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Oliver Tarvet

Break Points Saved %

58.3%

70.2%

Break Points Converted %

25.7%

39.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

63.9%

Break Points Converted %

45.6%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida 0 – 0 Oliver Tarvet

Hard Roehampton 2 challenger · 2026-08-25

1. round

Oliver Tarvet #329

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida #254

6-4 6-4

1 Aces 5

3 Double Faults 0

70 Service Points 59

49 First Serve In 42

31 First Serve Won 32

9 Second Serve Won 9

4 Break Points Saved 0

7 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.6

Hard Roehampton challenger · 2026-08-19

R16

Oliver Tarvet #380

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida #281

6-2 5-7 6-4

3 Aces 10

0 Double Faults 2

87 Service Points 91

64 First Serve In 61

44 First Serve Won 49

10 Second Serve Won 12

4 Break Points Saved 6

8 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.2

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida vs Oliver Tarvet — Prediction