ATP tennis predict — Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida vs Louis Wessels

Challenger Clay Bonn challenger · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Brazil

72.90%

Louis Wessels

Germany

27.10%

Average Odds

1.15 / 4.71

Market probability

80.38% / 19.62%

Why This Prediction?

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1667 vs 1524), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1693 vs 1531) and a stronger return game (38.5% vs 34.6% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1667.2 Elo 1524.3

1692.7 Elo (surface) 1531.5

136 Wins (Challenger) 53

134 Wins (surface) 38

12 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.895 Dominance ratio 0.829

295 Rank 539

25.3 Age 27.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Louis Wessels

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-07-13.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Louis Wessels

1st Serve In %

66.0%

63.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.9%

68.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.1%

49.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.3%

21.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.0%

49.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.22

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.41

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

69.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.0%

45.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.8%

30.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.3%

41.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.49

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Louis Wessels

Break Points Saved %

58.3%

59.7%

Break Points Converted %

25.7%

29.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

45.7%

Break Points Converted %

45.6%

29.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida 0 – 1 Louis Wessels

Clay Bonn challenger · 2026-07-26

qualification - 1. round

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida #449

Louis Wessels #457

6-3 6-4

2 Aces 6

2 Double Faults 3

61 Service Points 70

41 First Serve In 48

32 First Serve Won 30

11 Second Serve Won 10

4 Break Points Saved 4

4 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 4.7

Clay Bratislava CH · 2022-06-06

R32

Louis Wessels #321

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida #221

6-7(0) 6-4 7-6(5)

6 Aces 3

5 Double Faults 3

103 Service Points 113

63 First Serve In 82

48 First Serve Won 55

21 Second Serve Won 17

2 Break Points Saved 4

4 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida vs Louis Wessels — Prediction