ATP tennis predict — Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida vs Johan Nikles

Challenger Clay Bonn challenger · qualification - round of 16

Predicted probability

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Brazil

68.08%

Johan Nikles

Switzerland

31.92%

Average Odds

1.21 / 4.04

Market probability

76.95% / 23.05%

Why This Prediction?

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1675 vs 1534), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1700 vs 1568) and a stronger serve (62.4% vs 54.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1675.2 Elo 1533.9

1700.4 Elo (surface) 1568.2

137 Wins (Challenger) 54

135 Wins (surface) 46

12 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.953 Dominance ratio 0.967

449 Rank 441

25.3 Age 29.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Johan Nikles

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Johan Nikles

1st Serve In %

66.0%

60.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.9%

58.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.1%

48.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.3%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.0%

50.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.22

0.10

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.6%

61.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

69.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.0%

45.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.8%

42.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.3%

55.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Johan Nikles

Break Points Saved %

58.3%

57.0%

Break Points Converted %

25.7%

41.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

45.6%

51.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida 0 – 1 Johan Nikles

Clay Bonn challenger · 2026-07-27

qualification - round of 16

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida #297

Johan Nikles #412

6-3 6-2

0 Aces 0

2 Double Faults 2

50 Service Points 56

35 First Serve In 37

25 First Serve Won 21

12 Second Serve Won 10

4 Break Points Saved 5

5 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.0

Clay Lima 1 CH · 2021-09-27

R16

Johan Nikles #380

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida #320

7-6(2) 6-4

1 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 1

84 Service Points 68

63 First Serve In 50

36 First Serve Won 26

11 Second Serve Won 8

6 Break Points Saved 0

10 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida vs Johan Nikles — Prediction