ATP tennis predict — Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida vs Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Challenger Clay Antofagasta challenger · QF 15:00

Predicted probability

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Brazil

65.75%

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Brazil

34.25%

Average Odds

1.43 / 2.56

Market probability

64.16% / 35.84%

Why This Prediction?

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1771 vs 1711), a stronger return game (41.9% vs 34.9% of return points won) and a stronger serve (66.4% vs 60.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1748.8 Elo 1694.2

1771.0 Elo (surface) 1711.4

150 Wins (Challenger) 136

145 Wins (surface) 128

9 Last 15 form 8

3 Head-to-head wins 0

1.247 Dominance ratio 0.886

255 Rank 230

25.5 Age 26.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 12W–3L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

31 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–7L · 22.2%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

1st Serve In %

66.0%

62.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.9%

63.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.1%

44.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.3%

22.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.0%

48.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.22

0.21

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.1%

62.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.1%

59.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

73.8%

42.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

39.6%

28.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.7%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.19

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Break Points Saved %

58.3%

48.3%

Break Points Converted %

25.7%

31.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.8%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

47.8%

52.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida 3 – 0 Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Clay Curitiba challenger · 2026-09-30

R16

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida #270

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva #231

6-3 4-6 6-3

5 Aces 4

2 Double Faults 6

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

33 First Serve Won 45

18 Second Serve Won 17

3 Break Points Saved 8

7 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.4

Clay Buenos Aires CH · 2025-09-22

R16

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida #285

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva #222

6-0 3-6 6-4

1 Aces 1

5 Double Faults 1

76 Service Points 93

52 First Serve In 66

37 First Serve Won 38

8 Second Serve Won 10

4 Break Points Saved 12

7 Break Points Faced 18

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Coquimbo CH · 2023-05-01

F

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida #293

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva #282

7-6(1) 6-7(4) 6-4

4 Aces 2

3 Double Faults 2

118 Service Points 121

84 First Serve In 79

62 First Serve Won 49

14 Second Serve Won 24

4 Break Points Saved 4

8 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida vs Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida — Last 10

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva — Last 10