ATP tennis predict — Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida vs Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Challenger Hard Mallorca challenger · 1. round 16:30

Predicted probability

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Brazil

43.65%

Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Japan

56.35%

Average Odds

2.03 / 1.72

Market probability

45.87% / 54.13%

Why This Prediction?

Jay Dylan Hara Friend is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1680 vs 1509) and more wins on hard courts (27 vs 5).

Player Comparison

1709.7 Elo 1679.1

1509.5 Elo (surface) 1679.5

146 Wins (Challenger) 27

5 Wins (surface) 27

10 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.165 Dominance ratio 1.172

260 Rank 312

25.4 Age 22.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–7L · 53.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

29 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Jay Dylan Hara Friend

1st Serve In %

66.0%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

69.9%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.1%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.0%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.22

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.6%

58.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

65.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.0%

54.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.8%

30.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.3%

47.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Break Points Saved %

58.3%

—

Break Points Converted %

25.7%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

52.3%

Break Points Converted %

45.6%

42.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida 0 – 0 Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Hard Mallorca challenger · 2026-09-02

1. round

Jay Dylan Hara Friend #312

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida #260

7-6 6-3

2 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 3

74 Service Points 69

48 First Serve In 48

26 First Serve Won 28

15 Second Serve Won 22

5 Break Points Saved 1

8 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.0

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida vs Jay Dylan Hara Friend — Prediction