ATP tennis predict — Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida vs Jan Kumstat

Challenger Clay Hamburg challenger · SF 14:30

Predicted probability

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Brazil

31.47%

Jan Kumstat

Czech Republic

68.53%

Average Odds

2.58 / 1.46

Market probability

36.14% / 63.86%

Why This Prediction?

Jan Kumstat is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1838 vs 1725), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1870 vs 1752) and a stronger serve (68.9% vs 61.4% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1724.6 Elo 1838.2

1751.9 Elo (surface) 1870.1

143 Wins (Challenger) 23

141 Wins (surface) 18

13 Last 15 form 14

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.999 Dominance ratio 1.188

277 Rank 336

25.4 Age 19.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Jan Kumstat

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 15W–1L · 93.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Jan Kumstat

1st Serve In %

66.0%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

69.9%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.1%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.0%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.22

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.6%

56.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.0%

52.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.8%

23.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.3%

44.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Jan Kumstat

Break Points Saved %

58.3%

—

Break Points Converted %

25.7%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

61.5%

Break Points Converted %

45.6%

28.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida 0 – 0 Jan Kumstat

Clay Hamburg challenger · 2026-08-15

SF

Jan Kumstat #336

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida #277

6-4 5-7 6-2

4 Aces 3

5 Double Faults 3

96 Service Points 87

56 First Serve In 39

40 First Serve Won 31

18 Second Serve Won 27

4 Break Points Saved 6

8 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.6

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida vs Jan Kumstat — Prediction