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Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri — Prediction

Challenger Clay Antofagasta challenger · R16 17:30

Predicted probability

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Brazil

66.57%

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Argentina

33.43%

Average Odds

1.34  /  2.96

Market probability

68.84%  /  31.16%

Why This Prediction?

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1762 vs 1643), a higher Elo rating (1739 vs 1647) and a stronger serve (62.4% vs 55.1% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1739.3 Elo 1647.1
1762.1 Elo (surface) 1643.2
149 Wins (Challenger) 165
144 Wins (surface) 148
9 Last 15 form 7
2 Head-to-head wins 3
1.247 Dominance ratio 1.288
255 Rank 287
25.5 Age 28.2
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–2L · 66.7%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–8L · 20.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Genaro Alberto Olivieri

1st Serve In %

66.0%
67.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.9%
61.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.1%
45.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.3%
31.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.0%
36.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.22
0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20
0.17

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.6%
68.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%
70.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

64.5%
47.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.3%
36.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.3%
56.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.26
0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18
0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Break Points Saved %

58.3%
51.3%

Break Points Converted %

25.7%
30.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.0%
62.3%

Break Points Converted %

47.2%
42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida 2 – 3 Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Clay Santo Domingo CH · 2023-08-07

R32

Genaro Alberto Olivieri #193

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida #303

6-2 1-6 6-2
0 Aces 0
4 Double Faults 5
87 Service Points 74
48 First Serve In 47
28 First Serve Won 26
20 Second Serve Won 14
9 Break Points Saved 2
12 Break Points Faced 7
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Grass Wimbledon · 2022-06-27

Q1

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida #228

Genaro Alberto Olivieri #224

6-3 6-2
2 Aces 0
0 Double Faults 0
44 Service Points 50
27 First Serve In 34
23 First Serve Won 21
13 Second Serve Won 9
0 Break Points Saved 4
0 Break Points Faced 7
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Santiago CH · 2022-03-07

R32

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida #241

Genaro Alberto Olivieri #279

6-3 3-6 6-3
3 Aces 2
1 Double Faults 3
91 Service Points 92
68 First Serve In 60
47 First Serve Won 39
13 Second Serve Won 15
8 Break Points Saved 8
10 Break Points Faced 11
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Florianopolis CH · 2021-12-06

R16

Genaro Alberto Olivieri #346

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida #286

6-1 7-5
2 Aces 0
0 Double Faults 0
74 Service Points 63
40 First Serve In 48
26 First Serve Won 24
21 Second Serve Won 7
2 Break Points Saved 1
4 Break Points Faced 6
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Brasilia CH · 2021-11-22

R32

Genaro Alberto Olivieri #349

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida #270

2-6 6-2 6-4
3 Aces 2
2 Double Faults 4
89 Service Points 83
51 First Serve In 56
33 First Serve Won 40
23 Second Serve Won 11
2 Break Points Saved 5
4 Break Points Faced 8
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida — Last 10

W L W W L L W W L L

Genaro Alberto Olivieri — Last 10

W L L L W W L L W L