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Mateus Alves vs Jose Pereira — Prediction

Challenger Clay Antofagasta challenger · qualification - round of 16 16:30

Predicted probability

Mateus Alves

Brazil

70.59%

Jose Pereira

Brazil

29.41%

Average Odds

1.15  /  4.92

Market probability

81.05%  /  18.95%

Why This Prediction?

Mateus Alves is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1526 vs 1462), a higher Elo rating (1485 vs 1453) and more wins on clay courts (79 vs 73).

Player Comparison

1484.6 Elo 1452.8
1526.1 Elo (surface) 1461.8
85 Wins (Challenger) 81
79 Wins (surface) 73
4 Last 15 form 7
0 Head-to-head wins 0
0.920 Dominance ratio 0.981
417 Rank 838
25.7 Age 35.7
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mateus Alves

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

No market odds recorded for this player yet.

Jose Pereira

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

2 matches with market odds since 2026-09-29.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mateus Alves Jose Pereira

1st Serve In %

63.5%
66.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.4%
62.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.3%
48.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.0%
23.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.1%
40.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.45
0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24
0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.1%
68.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.1%
67.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.6%
57.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.3%
36.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.1%
46.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.35
0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36
0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mateus Alves Jose Pereira

Break Points Saved %

58.6%
56.2%

Break Points Converted %

30.0%
33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.8%
67.4%

Break Points Converted %

31.1%
43.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mateus Alves and Jose Pereira have never played each other.

Mateus Alves — Last 10

L L L L L L W L L W

Jose Pereira — Last 10

W W L W L L W W L L