ATP tennis predict — Mateus Alves vs Gonzalo Villanueva

Challenger Clay Curitiba challenger · R16 16:00

Predicted probability

Mateus Alves

Brazil

29.59%

Gonzalo Villanueva

Argentina

70.41%

Average Odds

1.40 / 2.73

Market probability

66.10% / 33.90%

Why This Prediction?

Gonzalo Villanueva is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1673 vs 1485), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1689 vs 1526) and a better head-to-head record against Mateus Alves (2-1).

Player Comparison

1484.6 Elo 1672.6

1526.1 Elo (surface) 1688.9

85 Wins (Challenger) 183

79 Wins (surface) 172

4 Last 15 form 10

1 Head-to-head wins 2

0.920 Dominance ratio 1.282

417 Rank 329

25.7 Age 31.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mateus Alves

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

No market odds recorded for this player yet.

Gonzalo Villanueva

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mateus Alves Gonzalo Villanueva

1st Serve In %

63.5%

58.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.4%

63.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.3%

44.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.0%

31.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.1%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.11

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.51

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.1%

64.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.1%

64.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.6%

61.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.3%

39.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.1%

57.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.24

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mateus Alves Gonzalo Villanueva

Break Points Saved %

58.6%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

30.0%

45.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.8%

56.6%

Break Points Converted %

31.1%

49.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mateus Alves 1 – 2 Gonzalo Villanueva

Clay Santos CH · 2025-05-05

R32

Gonzalo Villanueva #428

Mateus Alves #322

3-6 7-5 7-6(2)

8 Aces 12

0 Double Faults 7

99 Service Points 109

70 First Serve In 48

50 First Serve Won 36

16 Second Serve Won 31

7 Break Points Saved 1

10 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Buenos Aires 2 CH · 2024-09-30

Q2

Gonzalo Villanueva #408

Mateus Alves #299

6-7(2) 6-1 7-6(3)

3 Aces 6

1 Double Faults 1

108 Service Points 108

78 First Serve In 68

54 First Serve Won 46

18 Second Serve Won 20

5 Break Points Saved 6

7 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Cali CH · 2024-09-16

R32

Mateus Alves #309

Gonzalo Villanueva #410

6-3 7-5

4 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 4

73 Service Points 54

38 First Serve In 31

30 First Serve Won 19

20 Second Serve Won 12

6 Break Points Saved 2

7 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Mateus Alves vs Gonzalo Villanueva — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Mateus Alves — Last 10

Gonzalo Villanueva — Last 10