ATP tennis predict — Mateus Alves vs Bruno Fernandez

Challenger Clay Santa Cruz De La Sierra challenger · qualification - round of 16 18:00

Predicted probability

Mateus Alves

Brazil

62.96%

Bruno Fernandez

Brazil

37.04%

Average Odds

1.19 / 4.13

Market probability

77.63% / 22.37%

Why This Prediction?

Mateus Alves is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1485 vs 1387), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1526 vs 1401) and more wins on clay courts (79 vs 15).

Player Comparison

1484.6 Elo 1387.4

1526.1 Elo (surface) 1400.9

85 Wins (Challenger) 15

79 Wins (surface) 15

4 Last 15 form 4

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.920 Dominance ratio 1.166

385 Rank 567

25.7 Age 22.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mateus Alves

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

No market odds recorded for this player yet.

Bruno Fernandez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-06-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mateus Alves Bruno Fernandez

1st Serve In %

63.5%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

67.4%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.0%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.1%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.45

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.1%

62.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.1%

76.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.6%

52.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.3%

25.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.1%

55.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mateus Alves Bruno Fernandez

Break Points Saved %

58.6%

—

Break Points Converted %

30.0%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.8%

67.2%

Break Points Converted %

31.1%

52.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mateus Alves and Bruno Fernandez have never played each other.

Mateus Alves vs Bruno Fernandez — Prediction