ATP tennis predict — Matej Dodig vs Rudolf Molleker

Challenger Clay Hamburg challenger · R16 12:00

Predicted probability

Matej Dodig

Croatia

57.58%

Rudolf Molleker

Germany

42.42%

Average Odds

1.38 / 2.85

Market probability

67.38% / 32.62%

Why This Prediction?

Matej Dodig is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1611 vs 1548), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1630 vs 1585) and fewer double faults per game (0.11 vs 0.15).

Player Comparison

1611.3 Elo 1548.2

1629.6 Elo (surface) 1585.0

75 Wins (Challenger) 140

55 Wins (surface) 112

10 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.909 Dominance ratio 1.092

257 Rank 488

21.1 Age 25.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matej Dodig

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Rudolf Molleker

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matej Dodig Rudolf Molleker

1st Serve In %

65.9%

58.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.5%

72.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.1%

53.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.2%

25.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.9%

53.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.70

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.5%

56.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.0%

69.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.0%

28.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.7%

47.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matej Dodig Rudolf Molleker

Break Points Saved %

61.7%

53.2%

Break Points Converted %

31.7%

46.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.6%

49.2%

Break Points Converted %

46.2%

29.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matej Dodig 0 – 0 Rudolf Molleker

Clay Hamburg challenger · 2026-08-13

R16

Matej Dodig #257

Rudolf Molleker #488

6-4 6-3

12 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 2

71 Service Points 49

44 First Serve In 25

33 First Serve Won 20

15 Second Serve Won 12

8 Break Points Saved 1

8 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.9

Matej Dodig vs Rudolf Molleker — Prediction