ATP tennis predict — Matej Dodig vs Oleksii Krutykh

Challenger Clay Hagen challenger · qualification - round of 16

Predicted probability

Matej Dodig

Croatia

55.89%

Oleksii Krutykh

Ukraine

44.11%

Average Odds

1.45 / 2.59

Market probability

64.11% / 35.89%

Why This Prediction?

Matej Dodig is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1605 vs 1562), a better head-to-head record against Oleksii Krutykh (1-0) and more aces per game (0.17 vs 0.08).

Player Comparison

1583.3 Elo 1570.4

1604.8 Elo (surface) 1561.8

72 Wins (Challenger) 96

52 Wins (surface) 71

10 Last 15 form 9

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.002 Dominance ratio 1.257

258 Rank 527

21.0 Age 26.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matej Dodig

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Oleksii Krutykh

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-08-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matej Dodig Oleksii Krutykh

1st Serve In %

65.9%

58.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.5%

67.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.1%

50.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.2%

25.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.9%

54.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.21

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.5%

57.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.0%

68.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

50.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.0%

30.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.7%

47.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matej Dodig Oleksii Krutykh

Break Points Saved %

61.7%

56.1%

Break Points Converted %

31.7%

34.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.6%

63.4%

Break Points Converted %

46.2%

45.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matej Dodig 1 – 0 Oleksii Krutykh

Clay Hagen challenger · 2026-08-03

qualification - round of 16

Matej Dodig #257

Oleksii Krutykh #522

6-4 7-5

6 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 8

58 Service Points 68

34 First Serve In 33

29 First Serve Won 27

14 Second Serve Won 13

0 Break Points Saved 3

1 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.6

Clay Poznan CH · 2024-06-17

Q1

Matej Dodig #322

Oleksii Krutykh #520

6-4 4-6 6-3

8 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 3

89 Service Points 96

51 First Serve In 53

40 First Serve Won 35

18 Second Serve Won 20

2 Break Points Saved 5

5 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Matej Dodig vs Oleksii Krutykh — Prediction