ATP tennis predict — Matej Dodig vs Marvin Moeller

Challenger Clay Hamburg challenger · SF 16:00

Predicted probability

Matej Dodig

Croatia

45.07%

Marvin Moeller

Germany

54.93%

Average Odds

1.47 / 2.56

Market probability

63.52% / 36.48%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1632.3 Elo 1754.7

1651.9 Elo (surface) 1765.9

77 Wins (Challenger) 70

57 Wins (surface) 45

11 Last 15 form 13

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.945 Dominance ratio 0.994

257 Rank 319

21.1 Age 27.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matej Dodig

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Marvin Moeller

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matej Dodig Marvin Moeller

1st Serve In %

65.9%

62.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.5%

56.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.1%

42.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.2%

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.9%

37.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.26

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.40

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.5%

55.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.0%

73.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

47.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.0%

26.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.7%

49.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matej Dodig Marvin Moeller

Break Points Saved %

61.7%

54.5%

Break Points Converted %

31.7%

35.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.6%

58.6%

Break Points Converted %

46.2%

39.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matej Dodig 0 – 0 Marvin Moeller

Clay Hamburg challenger · 2026-08-15

SF

Marvin Moeller #319

Matej Dodig #257

6-2 6-4

4 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 1

61 Service Points 58

37 First Serve In 34

25 First Serve Won 26

8 Second Serve Won 14

1 Break Points Saved 1

4 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.6 Average Odds 1.5

Matej Dodig vs Marvin Moeller — Prediction