ATP tennis predict — Matej Dodig vs Lukas Neumayer

Challenger Clay Braga challenger · SF 12:00

Predicted probability

Matej Dodig

Croatia

62.59%

Lukas Neumayer

Austria

37.41%

Average Odds

1.65 / 2.14

Market probability

56.46% / 43.54%

Why This Prediction?

Matej Dodig is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1830 vs 1744), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1828 vs 1747) and a better head-to-head record against Lukas Neumayer (1-0).

Player Comparison

1830.4 Elo 1744.3

1828.4 Elo (surface) 1746.6

87 Wins (Challenger) 121

67 Wins (surface) 111

13 Last 15 form 10

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.845 Dominance ratio 0.846

174 Rank 180

21.2 Age 24.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matej Dodig

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Lukas Neumayer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–5L · 68.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matej Dodig Lukas Neumayer

1st Serve In %

65.9%

62.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.5%

72.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.1%

55.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.2%

29.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.9%

53.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.4%

55.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.9%

62.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.1%

44.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

19.8%

29.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.1%

34.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matej Dodig Lukas Neumayer

Break Points Saved %

61.7%

63.0%

Break Points Converted %

31.7%

43.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.8%

58.0%

Break Points Converted %

41.5%

48.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matej Dodig 1 – 0 Lukas Neumayer

Clay Trieste CH · 2025-07-07

QF

Matej Dodig #368

Lukas Neumayer #169

7-6(5) 6-2

7 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 1

81 Service Points 65

44 First Serve In 30

29 First Serve Won 17

24 Second Serve Won 23

9 Break Points Saved 1

10 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Matej Dodig vs Lukas Neumayer — Prediction