ATP tennis predict — Matej Dodig vs Lorenzo Giustino

Challenger Clay Hagen challenger · R16 11:00

Predicted probability

Matej Dodig

Croatia

67.58%

Lorenzo Giustino

Italy

32.42%

Average Odds

1.45 / 2.60

Market probability

64.20% / 35.80%

Why This Prediction?

Matej Dodig is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1618 vs 1565), a stronger serve (64.3% vs 60.1% of service points won) and a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1640 vs 1604).

Player Comparison

1618.1 Elo 1564.9

1640.0 Elo (surface) 1603.7

74 Wins (Challenger) 244

54 Wins (surface) 172

10 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.002 Dominance ratio 0.924

257 Rank 198

21.0 Age 34.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matej Dodig

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Lorenzo Giustino

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matej Dodig Lorenzo Giustino

1st Serve In %

65.9%

57.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.5%

71.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.1%

47.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.2%

27.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.9%

50.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.42

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.5%

57.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.0%

75.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

47.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.0%

28.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.7%

47.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matej Dodig Lorenzo Giustino

Break Points Saved %

61.7%

49.1%

Break Points Converted %

31.7%

42.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.6%

45.1%

Break Points Converted %

46.2%

39.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matej Dodig 0 – 1 Lorenzo Giustino

Clay Hagen challenger · 2026-08-06

R16

Lorenzo Giustino #198

Matej Dodig #257

4-6 7-5 7-6

10 Aces 5

3 Double Faults 4

94 Service Points 105

61 First Serve In 66

45 First Serve Won 48

17 Second Serve Won 20

1 Break Points Saved 9

5 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.6 Average Odds 1.4

Clay Todi CH · 2024-08-12

R16

Lorenzo Giustino #286

Matej Dodig #294

4-6 7-6(4) 6-1

5 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 1

103 Service Points 89

63 First Serve In 49

46 First Serve Won 32

19 Second Serve Won 17

10 Break Points Saved 4

13 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Matej Dodig vs Lorenzo Giustino — Prediction