ATP tennis predict — Matej Dodig vs Juan Pablo Varillas

Challenger Clay Como challenger · F 17:00

Predicted probability

Matej Dodig

Croatia

56.57%

Juan Pablo Varillas

Peru

43.43%

Average Odds

1.38 / 2.85

Market probability

67.38% / 32.62%

Why This Prediction?

Matej Dodig is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (63.7% vs 60.2% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1680.9 Elo 1685.2

1707.9 Elo (surface) 1719.7

81 Wins (Challenger) 221

61 Wins (surface) 218

12 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.866 Dominance ratio 0.920

254 Rank 234

21.1 Age 30.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matej Dodig

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Juan Pablo Varillas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-06-29.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matej Dodig Juan Pablo Varillas

1st Serve In %

65.9%

56.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.5%

69.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.1%

53.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.2%

27.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.9%

49.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.5%

57.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.0%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.0%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.7%

55.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matej Dodig Juan Pablo Varillas

Break Points Saved %

61.7%

69.0%

Break Points Converted %

31.7%

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.6%

54.1%

Break Points Converted %

46.2%

43.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matej Dodig 0 – 0 Juan Pablo Varillas

Clay Como challenger · 2026-09-06

F

Matej Dodig #254

Juan Pablo Varillas #234

6-3 7-6

10 Aces 4

0 Double Faults 0

65 Service Points 55

46 First Serve In 37

39 First Serve Won 29

11 Second Serve Won 12

1 Break Points Saved 0

1 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.9

Matej Dodig vs Juan Pablo Varillas — Prediction