ATP tennis predict — Matej Dodig vs Enrico Dalla Valle

Challenger Clay Genoa challenger · QF 18:30

Predicted probability

Matej Dodig

Croatia

69.22%

Enrico Dalla Valle

Italy

30.78%

Average Odds

1.48 / 2.51

Market probability

62.91% / 37.09%

Why This Prediction?

Matej Dodig is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1811 vs 1716), a higher Elo rating (1817 vs 1721) and better recent form (13 wins in his last 15 matches vs 9).

Player Comparison

1816.8 Elo 1721.2

1811.3 Elo (surface) 1715.9

84 Wins (Challenger) 121

64 Wins (surface) 96

13 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.845 Dominance ratio 1.024

254 Rank 333

21.2 Age 28.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matej Dodig

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Enrico Dalla Valle

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–5L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matej Dodig Enrico Dalla Valle

1st Serve In %

65.9%

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.5%

62.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.1%

56.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.2%

30.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.9%

42.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.11

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.5%

65.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.0%

76.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

51.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.0%

26.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.7%

52.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matej Dodig Enrico Dalla Valle

Break Points Saved %

61.7%

53.8%

Break Points Converted %

31.7%

12.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.6%

63.4%

Break Points Converted %

46.2%

57.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matej Dodig 0 – 0 Enrico Dalla Valle

Clay Genoa challenger · 2026-09-11

QF

Matej Dodig #254

Enrico Dalla Valle #333

6-7 6-2 7-6

9 Aces 7

1 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

50 First Serve Won 62

23 Second Serve Won 20

2 Break Points Saved 11

3 Break Points Faced 14

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.5

Matej Dodig vs Enrico Dalla Valle — Prediction