ATP tennis predict — Matej Dodig vs Denis Yevseyev

Challenger Clay Hamburg challenger · 1. round 12:35

Predicted probability

Matej Dodig

Croatia

69.46%

Denis Yevseyev

Kazakhstan

30.54%

Average Odds

1.15 / 4.92

Market probability

81.05% / 18.95%

Why This Prediction?

Matej Dodig is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1619 vs 1459), a higher Elo rating (1599 vs 1511) and a stronger serve (63.8% vs 58.9% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1598.7 Elo 1511.4

1618.6 Elo (surface) 1458.6

74 Wins (Challenger) 202

54 Wins (surface) 72

10 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.955 Dominance ratio 1.091

257 Rank 439

21.1 Age 33.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matej Dodig

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Denis Yevseyev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matej Dodig Denis Yevseyev

1st Serve In %

65.9%

63.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.5%

65.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.1%

44.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.2%

25.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.9%

48.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.5%

70.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.0%

72.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

56.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.0%

33.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.7%

48.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.51

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matej Dodig Denis Yevseyev

Break Points Saved %

61.7%

53.3%

Break Points Converted %

31.7%

45.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.6%

53.8%

Break Points Converted %

46.2%

35.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matej Dodig 0 – 0 Denis Yevseyev

Clay Hamburg challenger · 2026-08-11

1. round

Matej Dodig #257

Denis Yevseyev #439

6-3 6-1

0 Aces 5

3 Double Faults 1

61 Service Points 43

46 First Serve In 26

24 First Serve Won 19

4 Second Serve Won 11

4 Break Points Saved 0

9 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 4.9

Matej Dodig vs Denis Yevseyev — Prediction