ATP tennis predict — Matej Dodig vs Andrea Pellegrino

Challenger Clay Braga challenger · 1. round 11:00

Predicted probability

Matej Dodig

Croatia

60.35%

Andrea Pellegrino

Italy

39.65%

Average Odds

1.51 / 2.38

Market probability

61.18% / 38.82%

Why This Prediction?

Matej Dodig is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1809 vs 1759), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1804 vs 1771) and fewer double faults per game (0.11 vs 0.14).

Player Comparison

1809.5 Elo 1759.3

1803.7 Elo (surface) 1770.5

85 Wins (Challenger) 214

65 Wins (surface) 193

12 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.845 Dominance ratio 0.906

171 Rank 145

21.2 Age 29.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matej Dodig

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Andrea Pellegrino

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matej Dodig Andrea Pellegrino

1st Serve In %

65.9%

58.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.5%

67.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.1%

53.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.2%

30.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.9%

46.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.5%

57.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.0%

68.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

60.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.0%

28.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.7%

39.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matej Dodig Andrea Pellegrino

Break Points Saved %

61.7%

60.6%

Break Points Converted %

31.7%

39.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.6%

56.4%

Break Points Converted %

46.2%

36.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matej Dodig and Andrea Pellegrino have never played each other.

Matej Dodig vs Andrea Pellegrino — Prediction